Betting on a prolonged Deshaun Watson suspension

We’ve formally reached the slowest a part of the NFL calendar. Minicamps and OTAs are accomplished, however we’re nonetheless a few month away from coaching camps opening up. Whereas we don’t anticipate a lot information from the NFL till coaching camp begins, there’s a perception that we’re nearing a call on a possible suspension for Browns ’quarterback Deshaun Watson.

Watson has not performed since 2020, as a result of a mix of his dissatisfaction with the Houston Texans and what’s now 26 allegations of sexual misconduct. The Browns determined that Watson’s expertise was well worth the danger and subsequent PR nightmare, and traded for him in March. Only a few days in the past, Watson settled 20 of his instances, however he is not out of the woods. It is not believed that settling his instances may have any influence on a possible suspension. Over the weekend, it was reported by the Washington Publish that the NFL is in search of a full-season suspension for Watson.

Whereas the Watson state of affairs is far greater than soccer and betting, there is not any denying the influence any information may have on the sphere and with the betting market. Because the Browns acquired Watson, they’ve already dropped from 18-to-1 to win the Tremendous Bowl to 25-to-1. They have been as soon as favorites to win the AFC North, however now they’ve the third greatest odds within the division. Whereas the market has actually adjusted as a result of doubtless looming suspension, it’s not too late to get in on some motion. This is two probably profitable methods to fade the Browns earlier than the suspension information drops.

AFC North – Twin Forecast

Whereas the AFC North might not be as hyped because the AFC West or the NFC West, it’s nonetheless one of many easiest divisions in soccer with 4 groups that anticipate to compete. The Cincinnati Bengals made it to the Tremendous Bowl final season. The Baltimore Ravens have been 8-3 at one level earlier than their accidents grew to become an excessive amount of to beat. Mike Tomlin hasn’t had a dropping file with the Steelers since taking up in 2007.

Deshaun Watson needs to be suspended by the NFL within the coming weeks. (Nick Cammett / Getty Photos)

Even when Deshaun Watson was absolved and performed all 17 video games, you’d be capable to make an excellent case that the Ravens and Bengals are the 2 greatest groups on this division. If Jacoby Brissett begins plenty of video games for the Browns this season, it’s laborious to ascertain a world the place they will compete with two excellent groups. He averaged 5.7 yards per try this previous season with Miami in 5 begins. There isn’t a downfield risk in any respect with Brissett, which can enable groups to stack the field and hone in on the Browns’ run sport.

At present at BetMGM, you possibly can guess that the Ravens and Bengals will occupy the highest two seeds within the AFC North. That is the chalkiest guess out there, but it surely nonetheless pays out at +175 which is greater than adequate.

Browns to complete final in division

Final season, the Cleveland Browns completed the season with an 8-9 file, which tied them with Baltimore for the worst file within the AFC North. This season, the Steelers are prohibitive -190 favorites to complete the season within the basement of the division. The Browns have +400 to complete in final place.

Baker Mayfield performed via damage from Week 2 on in 2021, which severely impacted his play and the Browns ’capability to win. There have been questions on whether or not Mayfield is a franchise quarterback to start the season anyway, which is the primary purpose why the Browns went out and purchased Watson. Nonetheless, even whereas enjoying with a torn labrum and different accidents, Mayfield is a greater quarterback than Jacoby Brissett. So with the Watson suspension looming, it seems the Browns will play a large a part of their season with Brissett beneath middle. This might imply that fairly than bettering their greatest query mark, they downgraded.

The Steelers are the favorites to complete in final place, however they’re coming off a nine-win season and a playoff berth. The mixture of Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett cannot be worse than the model of Ben Roethlisberger we noticed final season. As talked about above, Mike Tomlin’s groups are at all times within the combine. We noticed him coach a crew with Duck Hodges to an 8-8 file a couple of years in the past. When you’re giving me Jacoby Brissett and Kevin Stefanski at +400 to complete under Mike Tomlin, I am taking all of it day lengthy.

The Ravens completed final within the division in 2021, but it surely’s actually laborious to ascertain that repeating itself. Actually, the Ravens are the present betting favorites to win the division at +165. They have been 8-3 final season earlier than accidents to Lamar Jackson and a boatload of different essential gamers submarined their season. So long as Baltimore does not have one other catastrophic season on the damage entrance, they will keep away from the basement.

Lots of people across the NFL anticipate the Bengals to take a step backwards in 2022, and that’s not a horrible take. They did win the AFC final yr; it might be simple to take a step again from that. Nonetheless, with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase one other yr older, I actually do not anticipate them to fall into the basement of the division.

If we’re banking on a prolonged suspension for Watson and plenty of Jacoby Brissett beneath middle for the Browns this season, then +400 odds to complete final within the division looks as if a very good guess to make.

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